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- ❌ Why Most OA Losses Start Inside Keepa
❌ Why Most OA Losses Start Inside Keepa
The exact screens you should look at before risking a single dollar.
Most bad OA buys don’t come from bad math.
They come from misreading Keepa.
The graph didn’t lie; you just didn’t ask it the right questions.
After enough scars (and refunds), we’ve settled on a simple rule:
If an ASIN doesn’t pass our Keepa checklist, we don’t buy it.
No exceptions. No “maybe it’ll recover.”
1️⃣ Price history tells us if we’re early… or exit liquidity
Before I even think about profit, we look at:
the 90-day average
the 180-day average
today’s buy box
Then we ask one question:
Is today’s price normal… or inflated?
If the current buy box is way above the averages, that’s usually a spike, not a new baseline.
We always run numbers using the lowest price from the last 90 days, not today’s price.
That one habit alone saves sellers from buying tops and praying.
2️⃣ Offer count trends matter more than the number itself
A static offer count means nothing.
We care about direction.
Green flags:
offer count slowly dropping
buy box holding or climbing
Red flags:
offers ramping fast
buy box sliding
price and sellers moving toward each other
When those lines start closing in, margins usually disappear next.
If they’re separating instead?
That’s when we dig deeper.
3️⃣ BSR should breathe, not flatline
Healthy ASINs look alive.
That means:
regular drops
consistent recovery
movement over 30–90 days
What we avoid:
long flatlines
BSR steadily climbing
random spikes with no follow-through
When rank trends upward over time, demand is usually leaking out quietly.
Zoom out. The long view tells the truth.
4️⃣ Seller reviews tell me who I’m competing with
I hover over sellers and scan reviews:
under ~200 → usually OA
200–1,000 → mixed bag
1,000+ → often wholesale or brand
If the buy box is dominated by small sellers, we’re comfortable jumping in.
If it’s stacked with massive accounts, we slow way down – or pass entirely.
This also helps us decide who to reverse-source later.
5️⃣ Inventory levels reveal velocity
The Offers tab is gold.
Fast movers usually show:
smaller stock counts
inventory dropping week to week
frequent replenishment
Slow movers sit there with:
hundreds of units
barely changing numbers
months of stagnation
We want capital cycling, not parked.
6️⃣ Seasonality should repeat, not surprise
We always zoom out to a 1-year or all-time view.
What we like:
predictable seasonal spikes
similar timing year over year
clear demand windows
What we avoid:
one-off explosions
declining peaks
no visible pattern
If it’s seasonal and proven, we buy earlier and plan our exit before the window closes.
7️⃣ Transfer timing tells us how crowded it’ll get
One last sneaky check:
We look at when other sellers first appear on the listing.
If competition shows up weeks later, transfers are slow and we’ve got breathing room.
If they appear days later, things move fast and the window is tight.
That single insight tells us how aggressive we need to be.
If you’re thinking, “Okay… that’s a lot to really learn in Keepa,”
You’re right.
That’s why Chris Grant’s Keepa Academy is one of the few resources we genuinely recommend.
It teaches you how to read the graphs accurately instead of guessing at them, and once it clicks, sourcing gets calmer and way more consistent.
And this is also why FBA Lead List exists.
Our lead lists focus on:
fast-turning ASINs
strong rank momentum
products that already pass these Keepa filters
Instead of starting from a blank search bar, you’re reviewing products that already behave the way you want.
Subscribe to our lists and start stacking wins like Ken, one of our long-time subscribers:
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
“My experience with lead lists always turned into a dumpster fire until I subscribed to FBA Lead Lists. I have more than tripled my revenue and profits!” - Ken
Instant access. 10+ fast-moving, high-profit OA leads every morning
85% avg ROI, $14+ avg profit/unit. Lists capped to prevent saturation
One flip can cover your month’s subscription. No lock-in periods.
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