📈 Scale the Right Asins this Peak Week

Use last year’s Q4 data to scale winners this week—without chasing hype or creating January dead stock.

December 08, 2025

Real talk: right now is when sellers get emotional.

Peak week is here, prices are moving, and a lot of people start “buying because it’s Q4”… instead of buying because the data says the ASIN deserves it.

So here’s a simple, no-hype Q4 scaling method you can use this week to decide what’s worth more capital before the window closes.

Step 1) Pull last year’s Q4 window on Keepa

For any ASIN you’re thinking about scaling, check: Nov 15 → Dec 31 last year, and compare it to the 60–90 days right before that.

You’re looking for a repeatable pattern, not a random spike.

Quick things to note:

  • price pre-Q4 vs price in Q4

  • rank/velocity pre-Q4 vs Q4

  • offer count change

  • did Amazon jump in?

💡 Quick resource: if you’ve ever stared at a Keepa chart and thought “what am I even looking at?” Chris Grant’s Keepa Academy is a simple, over-the-shoulder walkthrough that teaches you how to read history graphs fast, spot real seasonal trends, understand Buy Box behavior, and dial in the exact Keepa settings for sourcing. Chris even offers a money-back guarantee if you feel you didn’t get your money’s worth.

Step 2) Bucket the ASIN (this decides how deep you go)

Put each lead into one of these:

A) Evergreen with a Q4 bump (best scale picks)

  • sells all year

  • price holds or rises in Q4

  • offer count doesn’t explode

These still deserve a bigger bet right now.

B) True seasonal spike (scale carefully, exit fast)

  • demand only pops in Nov/Dec

  • price spikes then drops after Dec 25

  • offer count floods in

These are “ride the band, don’t overstay.”

C) Hype trap (don’t scale)

  • price spikes but rank doesn’t really improve

  • sellers dogpile and price collapses

  • Amazon caps the listing

Skip. Zero capital.

Step 3) Estimate last year’s lift (simple multiplier)

You don’t need perfect math:

  • if it looked about 2× better in Q4 → call it 2×

  • if it looked 4× better → call it 4×

Be conservative if you’re unsure.

Only scale where you can see a clean lift.

Step 4) Make sure price supported that lift

A big demand bump doesn’t help if price fell apart.

Ask:

  • Did the Buy Box stay in a profitable band last year?

  • Did price free-fall from dogpiling?

  • Did Amazon show up and hold the price low?

Scale only if last year’s price band stayed healthy.

Step 5) Watch offer count pressure

Offer count tells you whether December competition will eat the margin.

Guidelines:

  • offers up <30% vs pre-Q4 = safe to scale

  • up 30–60% = scale modestly

  • up >60% = dogpile risk → scale light or skip

Step 6) Buy in tranches (no YOLO buys)

Even winners can flip fast this late in Q4.

Tranche plan:

  • buy 40–50% of what you think you want

  • recheck price + offers in 5–7 days

  • buy the rest only if the band holds

This protects you from:

  • surprise Amazon entry

  • sudden dogpile

  • price cliffs right before Christmas

Step 7) Set stop-loss rules on seasonal items

Don’t wait until Dec 22 just to decide emotionally.

Pick your exit line now:

  • “If Buy Box drops below $X, I stop replenishing.”

  • “If offers jump above Y, I stop buying.”

  • “If rank normalizes by Dec 18, I liquidate.”

You want your rules written before the market gets weird.

The takeaway:

Even with only a week left of peak buying, the right SKUs still deserve a bigger bet.
The wrong ones deserve zero.

That’s how you finish Q4 strong without creating a January dead-stock hangover.

If you want a consistent stream of evergreen replenishables to apply this exact scaling method to (now and heading into Q1), check out our lead lists.

Our lists provide leads that are steady, year-round sellers — the kind you can keep re-ordering after the holidays — and this week is a perfect time to scale the proven winners using the framework above.

Start stacking wins like Ken, one of our long-time subscribers:

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