5 Ways January Surprises Amazon Sellers (And How to Prepare Now)

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You did the work. You sourced the products, made the buys, watched the sales roll in during November and December. Your dashboard looked great. Q4 felt like a win.

Then January happened.

For a lot of Amazon FBA sellers, January 2025 was a wake-up call. Low Inventory Fees (launched in April 2024) hit during the post-holiday slowdown for the first time. Capacity limits had tightened throughout the year. Sellers who thought they'd crushed Q4 watched their profits shrink from fees and costs they didn't see coming.

The truth? January is where Q4 profitability actually gets determined. The sellers who came out ahead understood that. The ones who scrambled didn't.

Here are the five biggest January surprises (plus a bonus sixth) that separate prepared sellers from those left wondering where their profits went.

1. Low Inventory Fees Can Penalize Holiday Success

Amazon's Low Inventory Fee system creates a trap for seasonal sellers. When you push heavy volume in November and December, Amazon's system raises your 30-day and 90-day sales averages, assuming you'll maintain that pace. January arrives, traffic normalizes, and you restock to match actual demand.

But Amazon's algorithm still uses your holiday averages. Your days of supply look artificially low. If you sell more than 20 units in a 7-day period, you lose the exemption, and the system treats your responsible January inventory as "understocked."

The result? You pay an additional $0.36 to $1.11 per unit on January sales, even though you stocked correctly for current demand.

The fee structure:

• Small Standard items: $0.32-$0.89 per unit

• Large Standard (under 3 lbs): $0.36-$0.97 per unit

• Large Standard (over 3 lbs): $0.47-$1.11 per unit

• Bulky items: even higher

Exemptions exist: Products selling fewer than 20 units in the last 7 days avoid the fee. New professional sellers get 365 days of grace. New-to-FBA products enrolled in FBA New Selection get 180 days.

How prepared sellers handle this: Modern Arbitrage Builders model Low Inventory Fees before buying seasonal inventory. They calculate the fee impact when weekly sales drop from 45 to 25 units, factoring it into Q4 profitability analysis rather than discovering it in February.

More importantly, they tend to build wider businesses (more ASINs) rather than deeper ones (high volume per ASIN). This strategy naturally insulates them from Low Inventory Fees. Very few prepared sellers are significantly impacted. The hardest hit are those going deep on products that spike in Q4.

2. Storage Fees Triple When Cash Is Tightest

December storage fees get charged in January, while you're still recovering from Q4 purchasing and haven’t been fully paid out by Amazon yet. The rate jumps from $0.78 per cubic foot (January-September) to $2.40 per cubic foot for peak season (October 15 - January 14).

That's a 307% increase.

For a seller sitting on 200 cubic feet of inventory, monthly storage jumps from $156 to $480. That extra $324 comes straight out of January cash flow.

The timing compounds the problem. You're carrying elevated Q4 inventory levels—products you stocked for holiday demand. Some sold. Some didn't. Some came back as returns. All of it gets charged at peak rates.

How prepared sellers handle this: They build peak storage into Q4 margin calculations from the start. When evaluating a November purchase, they ask: "If 20% of this doesn't sell by year-end, what does peak storage plus January carrying costs do to my ROI?"

They also clean house strategically in December, liquidating slow movers while buyer demand still exists rather than waiting for January when everyone's dumping inventory.

3. Returns Surge in "Returnuary"

Amazon extends return windows for Q4 purchases. Items bought in October, November, and December can often be returned well into January, creating a return spike the industry affectionately calls "Returnuary."

Giftable items (toys, electronics, apparel, home décor) get hit hardest. People aren't returning coffee pods or paper towels in January. They're returning Christmas presents.

The painful part is the fee structure. When an item returns, you pay:

1. The FBA fulfillment fee (Amazon keeps it)

2. A refund administration fee

3. Additional storage fees while the item waits to resell

You can often resell returned items, but you're taking the revenue hit in January and may not recoup it until February or later. And you'll recoup less because you've already paid non-refundable fees.

How prepared sellers handle this: They build return reserves. If they're heavy in giftable categories, they set aside 10-15% of Q4 gross revenue expecting returns. They don't spend it. They keep it liquid for the January cash flow gap.

They also understand category return rates and factor them into Q4 buying decisions.

4. Seasonal Items Lose Value Overnight

That holiday décor that sold at full price in November? It could be worth less than half that in January. Gift sets that moved fast in December? Nobody wants them now (unless they're redeeming gift cards, which can extend demand slightly).

You face four choices, none great:

1. Hold until next year (paying 11 months of storage)

2. Liquidate now, recouping what capital you can

3. Pay removal fees and store it yourself

4. Pay disposal fees

The hidden cost isn't just lost revenue. It's opportunity cost. That inventory takes up capacity you could use for items that would actually sell in January.

How prepared sellers handle this: They start selling aggressively in early-to-mid-December while demand exists. They'd rather take a smaller margin hit during the season than a bigger loss after.

More importantly, they already made their money in the early holiday season because they had Q4 inventory sent in by October 31. December sell-offs are just cleanup.

They also limit seasonal exposure, buying quantities they can realistically move during the season rather than maximizing bulk discounts that create January baggage.

5. Un-Liquidated Inventory Blocks Capacity

This compounds challenge #4. If you didn't liquidate slow movers in December, that inventory now blocks your ability to send fresh January inventory.

Amazon gives you finite capacity based on your IPI score and sales history. Every cubic foot of dead inventory is capacity you can't use for products that could actually sell.

Your options: pay removal fees to free up capacity, let profitable inventory sit at home because you can't send it in, or watch your capacity utilization score suffer (which impacts future limits).

How prepared sellers handle this: They maintain capacity hygiene year-round with removal triggers: "If this hasn't sold in X days and we're in month Y, it gets removed."

They also plan Q4 buying with capacity in mind, knowing approximately how much will sell, how much might return, and how much room they'll need for January. They don't fill every cubic foot of capacity in November.

Bonus Challenge #6: Account Health Rating Drops

After about December 20, sales velocity decreases through year-end into January. This is normal, expected behavior.

But Amazon's Account Health Rating uses a rolling 6-month calculation. When velocity drops, metrics shift in ways that look alarming but are actually just mathematical artifacts of seasonality.

Your AHR score drops not because you're doing anything wrong, but because velocity decreased predictably after the holiday rush.

Newer sellers see this and panic. They think they're about to get suspended. They start making reactive decisions, liquidating good inventory, making drastic changes, over a predictable seasonal pattern.

How prepared sellers handle this: They expect it. They know it's coming. They don't panic when their AHR drops in the new year because they understand it's a mathematical artifact, not a real performance problem.

They monitor it but don't react emotionally. They definitely don't liquidate good inventory over a score that dipped predictably.

The Pattern That Separates Winners from Strugglers

Notice the pattern? Old-school and newer resellers discover these problems in January or February after they’ve already happened. They react. They scramble. They wonder why their "great Q4" didn't translate to actual profit.

Modern Arbitrage Builders see them coming. They plan in October and November. They model costs. They build reserves. They make strategic decisions based on full-cycle profitability, not just December's dashboard.

The difference isn't intelligence or experience. It's mindset.

Old-school thinking treats Q4 as an event. Modern Arbitrage Builders treat it as part of a cycle. They know January is part of Q4's story, not a separate chapter.

What You Can Do Right Now

If you're reading this in November or early December, you still have time to prepare:

Build your return reserve now. Set aside 10-15% of Q4 gross revenue. Don't touch it until February.

Start liquidation decisions today. Identify which items need to move in December. Don't wait for January when everyone's dumping inventory.

Monitor capacity proactively. Know your limits. Understand what you'll need to remove to make room for January inventory.

Understand your metrics. Check your current AHR score. Understand what makes it move. Don't be surprised when it dips in the new year.

Track everything. Document your actual costs this January: Low Inventory Fees, storage spikes, return impacts, liquidation losses. You'll use this data to plan better next Q4.

If you're reading this in January thinking "I wish I'd known this in November," you're not alone. Most sellers learn these lessons the expensive way.

The good news? You know now. Next Q4 will be different.

The Real Cost

January 2025 was my reality check. I thought I'd made about $30,000 in profit based on December's numbers. When I reconciled everything in February, all the January fees, returns, liquidations, and storage costs, my actual Q4 profit was around $25,000.

I'd made money. But I'd left $5,000 on the table through poor planning and reactive decisions.

Modern Arbitrage Builders don't just avoid the pain. They capture the profit that old-school resellers leave behind. They make different buying decisions in November. They take different actions in December. They have different January experiences.

Same opportunities. Different preparation. Different outcomes.

You will be okay. But you'll be better if you prepare.

About the Author: Brian and Robin Joy Olson coach Amazon FBA arbitrage sellers, helping them build sustainable businesses through systematic approaches to sourcing, compliance, and operational challenges. Learn more at OfficialOlsons.com.